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2013 ULI Trends Day Arizona Recap – Part 3 – Economists Panel


Following the Apartment Panel was the Economists. Key characters from this group were Elliot Pollack, Elliot D. Pollack Company; John Lucking, Econ-Linc; moderated by John Graham, Sunbelt Holdings.

According to the economists, we are in “recovery” mode.  It is just a very slow recovery.

Here are a few of the bullet points.

  • Consumers have deleveraged – Wealth Effect is becoming more significant
  • Stock Market has recovered – back to the Peak
  • Housing has started the recovery process
  • Business Balance Sheets are strong but their confidence level is “cautious”
  • One number to watch is Employment Growth

What are the Black/Grey/White Swans that could concern the Recovery?

  • Currency Wars are a real concern.
  • Maybe we will get luck and the stimulus will kick in?
  • 2013 – the “Groundhog” Year – similar to 2012 in terms of GDP
  • Fiscal Cliff
  • Obamacare
  • We lost 234K jobs and have only recovered 96K so far.
  • Phoenix Metro is 3rd out of 25 for Major Employment markets in USA.

Housing still has a long way to go

  • It is estimated that 22% of the current housing inventory is rentals.
  • 40-45% of potential buyers are out of the market.
  • Pent up demand is the age bracket of 25-35 year olds.
  • Did not anticipate the investor to absorb as much of the Housing as it did

2016 should be the year we would start to see Office construction begin.

Final thoughts

  • Glass is now ½ FULL
  • 2015 will be a good year in Arizona

Overall, Elliot always has a quick wit and entertaining slideshow presentation to talk about sometimes some of the most boring facts. But, they are the facts. If you were there, what did you takeaway?

Filed under: Real Estate

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